When someone asks who the giants of the semiconductor industry are, the names of Intel’s founders, Gordon Moore and Robert Noyce, float to the top of my mind. And of course, there is the colorful and controversial William Shockly, who founded Shockly Semiconductor Labs, the first major semiconductor lab in Silicon Valley. And then there is Jack Kilby of Texas Instruments, who along with Robert Noyce is credited with inventing the integrated circuit.

But there is another giant in this area that most of the folks in the U.S. haven’t heard of, but who in some ways has had an even bigger impact on the current tech market.

That person is Dr. Robin Saxby; or to be more specific, Sir Robin Saxby, the founder of Advanced RISC Machines LTD (ARM) of Cambridge, England, and creator of the almost ubiquitous ARM processor. I say almost ubiquitous because the ARM processor in some form or another is at the core of almost every cell or smartphone sold today, as well as being used in billions of embedded devices around the world.

Until now these processors have mostly had life in embedded devices, cell phones and most recently in smartphones. They are the main processors used in many of the Linux-based operating systems on the market today, which you’ll find in cell and smartphones, such as Apple’s iPhone, and in DVD players, GPS systems, smart TVs, set-top boxes, etc. However, I am just now starting to see ARM processors move into some netbook models.

The one with the highest profile has been the ARM-based Qualcomm SnapDragon processor that will reportedly be used in an HP netbook somewhere down the line. And the ARM processor is also at the heart of Nvidia’s Tegra processor that, like the SnapDragon, is heavily targeted at netbooks, and especially netbooks aimed at being sold through telecom providers like Verizon Wireless, AT&T, etc. They are even showing up in servers with low-voltage requirements.

ARM Holdings, LTD, which is the parent company, does a lot of R&D of its own, but its real business is that of IP licensing. The ARM core is licensed to six public ARM silicon partners that are specifically taking aim at netbooks and smartbooks. These partners are Marvel, Qualcomm, Freescale, Samsung, Nvidia, and Texas Instruments.

Even though netbooks are hot, the ARM vendors’ commitment to the netbook platform is a bit of a gamble. As you perhaps know, about 85 percent of all netbooks sold today are Intel Atom-based and use Windows XP—Intel pretty much has this market to itself. Intel’s big advantage is the fact that if netbook customers really want backward compatibility with Windows apps and peripherals, then Windows XP and soon Windows 7 is the right choice. And Windows needs an X86 processor core to work.

In emerging markets, Linux-based systems could do well. And over time, Linux-based systems based on an OS like Android could actually gain ground with carriers that want to sell subsidized netbooks in stores, and want an OS that offers more control of the users’ experience and service offerings.
But if Windows continues to be key to true netbook growth, and continues to be around 80 percent of that market, the only way for the ARM folks to gain serious ground here would be to convince Microsoft to create a version of Windows for use on an ARM processor. Microsoft has resisted a move in this direction for many reasons. Although it is not technically impossible, part of the problem is that there are so many versions of ARM cores customized around devices that just doing a single version of Windows for ARM cores is impossible. Microsoft would have to make a major judgment call, and perhaps support single-core roadmaps from companies like Qualcomm or TI and then create special SDKs for third-party developers just to support these individual versions of Windows for these custom processor cores.

I suspect there is another reason Microsoft has not moved to support even one ARM core, and this is a business-related one. The partnership of Intel and Microsoft has been powerful, and their steadfast support of each other over the last 27 years has delivered amazing products, devices, and even services born out of the WinTel relationship. And while that pressure to continue in this tight relationship might be more implied than contractual, either way Microsoft and Intel seem destined to be blood brothers forever.

But there are cracks occurring in this relationship that could end up being good news for the ARM folks. The first rift is due to Intel’s decision to create its own Linux-based mobile OS named Moblin. Microsoft can’t be too happy about that development. For Intel, this is an important decision, in that the company has shown commitment to the Linux platform and clearly wanted more control of an Intel-based hardware, software OS, and application environment that favored its Atom processors.

But my sources tell me that a bigger rift is brewing over Intel’s decision to buy Wind River, which has an OS that is used in millions of embedded devices worldwide. As you perhaps know, Microsoft has a major business in the embedded space thanks to its Win CE Embedded OS and related products. Now Intel is a direct and major competitor, since Wind River is a 900-pound gorilla in this market.

According to folks I have been talking to who really understand this space, the Intel Wind River deal could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. If Microsoft felt any hard loyalty to Intel (and the X86 processor world), those days may be over.

We could have a sea change on the horizon if Microsoft decides to throw its support behind at least one or two major ARM platforms. For Microsoft, it would be a game changer, in that the market for various versions of Windows could expand exponentially overnight. Remember, not supporting ARM is a business decision, not really a technical one. If this did happen, TI and Qualcomm and the rest of the ARM partners could be big winners if Win 7 shows up on netbooks using their chipsets.

But the big reason I think Microsoft will do this is that it is about to get heavy competition from Google’s Android and Chrome OS, which already run on multiple ARM processors. At the very least, Microsoft needs to defend its turf well beyond the Intel platform it has been dedicated to for decades.
So, here is my prediction: There is a better than 80 percent chance that Microsoft will have versions of its OS for use on at least one or two ARM platforms within the next 12 to18 months. If the company does this, it would be a win-win for Microsoft and the ARM folks, but a real blow to Intel.